A decade following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and triggered disorder, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the political, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say this point is approaching, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unification has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author endorses unity or the status quo. Each composes two pieces that seek objectivity in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and social figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates range over national emblems, levies, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated the writer. "Debate implies an acceptance of the concept that there could be valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they support unity but refuse increased taxation or adopting a new flag to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his generation is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, valid perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and somebody will ultimately not succeed but each side has possesses valuable insights to learn from the other's arguments."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster should engage with the debate, said the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
